[Risk, Uncertainty and Ignorance in Investing and Business – Lessons from Richard Zeckhauser  ](https://25iq.com/2018/09/08/risk-uncertainty-and-ignorance-in-investing-and-business-lessons-from-richard-zeckhauser/)

[A universal way to solve problems, from a mathematical genius](https://qz.com/1365059/a-universal-way-to-solve-problems-from-a-mathematical-genius/)

[Benjamin Franklin on Decision Making: from a 1772 letter to Joseph Priestley](https://futurestartup.com/2013/01/22/benjamin-franklins-on-decision-making-from-a-1772-letter-to-joseph-priestley/)

[Seeing The Future From The Past](https://blogs.ams.org/blogonmathblogs/2018/09/10/seeing-the-future-from-the-past/)




## Behavioural biases

[How to Reduce the Sources of Forecasting Error](https://knowen-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/attachment/file/4138/bin-there-done-that-us.pdf) Michael J. Mauboussin


[Understanding Biases And Their Impact On Our Perceptions](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescoachescouncil/2018/09/19/understanding-biases-and-their-impact-on-our-perceptions/#34e545427859)

[Fool Me Three Times And I Give Up](https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/fool-me-three-times-and-i-give-up/) Sep 20, 2018 by Morgan Housel
> What actually occurred in the decade after the financial crisis – average market returns, tame volatility, pretty average economic growth, falling unemployment – is an outcome you would have have been laughed out of the room for suggesting in 2008, even if all of it was just predicting normalcy. We fell for an irony of thinking extreme tail events were probable, predictable, and visible. The literal opposite of a Black Swan.

## Asset Management

[BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS AND SUPERFORECASTING – A NEW ANGLE IN AM](https://knowen-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/attachment/file/2437/Behavioural%2BEconomics%2Band%2BSuperforecasting%2B-%2BA%2BNew%2BAngle%2Bin%2BAM%2BChristian%2BHille%2B_002_.pdf)
Christian Hille -  DWS, Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions